THINGS THAT BOTHER ME

YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS MINE

By HANDEL ANDREWS

Like many of you, I have been giving Barack Obama’s vice-Presidential choice a lot of thought. So, I have decided to put my words where my mouth is. Let me make it perfectly clear that I have no crystal ball, no tarot cards, and no angel come from heaven has imparted to me the secret thoughts of Barack Obama in this respect. My assertions arise from simple deduction, based on the data before me. The four most worthy of consideration are: Senators Hilary Clinton, Joseph Biden, Sam Nunn and Chuck Hagel.

HILLARY CLINTON

Many Democrats believe that Barack Obama must choose Hillary as his vice-President if he wishes to win the November U.S. Presidential election. I hold the opposing view.

Those who promote her as Obama’s choice point to her strengths. She is a household name and has a huge following of women and "hard working blue collar workers." In politics it helps to be well known, since it saves you having to go on bio tours. People already know you. Senator Hillary Clinton is, arguably, the most well-known female politician in the world.

The recent nomination contest proved that she commands a huge following of white women, so crucial in the forthcoming elections. However, a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Barack doing pretty well among that constituency. In it, women favored him 52% to McCain’s 33%. Those who had voted for Senator Clinton in the Democratic Primaries preferred Obama over McCain 61% to 19%. These trends do not downplay the fact that women voters could be counted to support Obama to the end with Senator Clinton on the ticket.

Mrs. Clinton also did well among white men in the Democratic Primaries. I doubt that she could deliver them in a general election. Historically, white men tend to vote Republican. In both 2000 and 2004 George Bush received far more white male votes than Al Gore or John Kerry.

The downsides to an Obama-Clinton ticket are: Bill Clinton and his baggage, her very nasty campaign in the Primaries which gave McCain and the Republicans powerful talking points. Perhaps the worst thing that would happen if Mrs. Clinton is chosen is that the Republican party would be energized and united.

JOSEPH BIDEN

Senator Joseph (Joe) Robinette Biden, always smiling but feisty, is an intriguing choice for Baracks’s running mate. Make no mistake about it, experience would become a significant Republican talking point the closer we get to November. For all his charm, wit and knowledge of the issues, Barack is still "the freshman Senator from Illinois". Therefore, it would help to have running mate with vast political experience. Joe Biden is his man.

Currently serving his sixth term, he has served for the sixth longest period (fourth among Democrats) among current Senators. He is Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, and has served as Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary.

Biden is well respected among Democrats, and would help Obama among conservative Democrats. But he is a Washington insider, the very persons Obama’s campaign criticizes. He has run for president on four previous occasions, and has never garnered significant support. Additionally, her cannot deliver a swing state.

SAM NUNN

Barack cannot win without a Southerner on his ticket, and Sam Nunn seems a credible candidate. He served 24 years as a Senator from Georgia, where he was born and raised, and is Chairman of the Senate Armed services Committee. He is chairman of the NTI (Nuclear Threat Initiative), a charitable organization that works to reduce global threats from nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.

Senator Nunn would bring invaluable national security and foreign relations experience to the ticket, and could help Obama win Georgia, which has become a possible democratic pickup. His moderate voting record could, also. Draw moderates to Obama.

However, some of his negatives make him a difficult choice. He promoted and voted for Clarence Thomas to the U.S. Supreme Court. And, of course, the Judge stands for pro-life, a position opposed by Senator Obama. Senator Nunn is also remembered as being instrumental in killing Bill Clinton’s 1993 proposal to lift the ban on gays in the military.

CHUCK HAGEL

Barack Obama has stated on many occasions that he is not opposed to stretching over the aisle to choose a running mate. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb) would be a bold, but positive move. The last time a major Presidential ticket was composed of candidates from 2 different parties was in 1864. At that time Abraham Lincoln, a Republican, ran with Andrew Johnson, a Democrat, under the banner of the National Union Party (NUP).

Hagel is a Vietnam war veteran. He has served as deputy whip for the Republican caucus. He is a member of the senate FOREIGN Relations Committee; Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs; Select Committee on Intelligence, and the Committee on Rules and Administration.

Although Hagel is a Republican, he has not shied away from criticizing the Republican President. He has said, "I have to say this is one of the most arrogant, incompetent administrations I’ve ever seen or read about."

He also joined Senator Ted Kennedy to support the Comprehensive Reform Act (2007). In July, 2007, he supported Democratic proposed legislation to require that U.S. troops begin withdrawing from Iraq within 120 days.

Hagel’s pros are that he would make the Democratic Party’s Presidential ticket bi-party, and attract many Republicans. He would also bring much experience to the ticket. His negatives are that he voted for the Iraq war, and it is also doubtful that the Democratic Convention, which must okay Obama’s choice, would support a Republican on the ticket.

UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS

These choices are based on the assumption that a Presidential ticket should be balanced if it wishes to succeed. If the Presidential nominee is light on experience, his running mate should be heavy on experience. The ticket should also comprise persons from different parts of the country; e.g. a Midwesterner with a Southerner.

However, Presidential candidates do not always follow these patterns, and the patterns themselves do not always guarantee success. Bill Clinton, a Southerner (Arkansas), paired with Al Gore, another Southerner (Tennessee). They defeated the ticket of George H.W. Bush, a Southerner (Texas), then President, and Dan Quayle, a young, ex-Senator from Indiana, a Northern State. The general opinion was that the more well balanced ticket of Bush-Quayle would have carried the big day.

There is no hard and fast rule determining a running mate. There have been times when that choice was dictated more by need than want. John Kennedy chose Lyndon B. Johnson, a man with whom he and his brother Robert had violent disagreements, to be his running mate, and they won the election of 1960.

Kennedy chose Johnson because of his many political contacts. Many Senators and Congressmen owed him favors, and would pay their debt if he were on the ticket. Additionally, he was strong in the South and West.

CONCLUSION

Since there is no reliable strategy for choosing a vice-Presidential nominee, any of the choices I have discussed qualify for this position. When I was a boy we used to say, "Who knows? The Shadow (a movie character) knows." Do any of the pundits really know? At this stage, does the candidate know? I rather doubt it. So, my fellow comrades, your guess is as good as mine.

This is how I see it this week. Think your own thoughts. Onward, ever forever, fellow comrades. God bless America.